Rafael Nadal vs Kei Nishikori Tennis Prediction
Rafael Nadal leads the H2H 9-2 (3-0 on clay), but Kei Nishikori won their recent meeting at the Rio Olympics in 2016 (match for the Bronze medal). The closest Nishikori came to defeating Nadal on clay was at the Madrid Masters 2014 when he won the first set but was forced to retire in the decider. A fully fit Nishikori is definitely capable of making Nadal work for his win in a best-of-three-sets clay match.
Rafael Nadal News
Rafael Nadal secured yet another comfortable victory on clay as he raced to a 6-4 6-1 win over Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinal. It was Nadal’s fourth straight-set win of the week and six out of six on clay this season.
Only three players have taken a set off Rafael Nadal on clay in the last 16 months, Dominic Thiem in Rome Masters, Fabio Fognini in Madrid Masters and Kyle Edmund in Monte Carlo Masters. The last time he dropped a set in the final of a clay tournament was here at Monte Carlo in 2016, when he was taken to the distance by Gael Monfils, 7-5 5-7 6-0.
The ten-time Monte Carlo Champion, Rafael Nadal, will be playing his 47th Masters 1000 final on Sunday. No player has played more finals at this level than the Spaniard (Federer- 47, Djokovic- 44).
Defeating Nadal on clay is arguably the biggest challenge in Men’s tennis (last defeat in Rome Masters 2017), but the challenge gets even bigger if it’s the final of a clay tournament. His previous loss in the clay title decider came in 2015 Madrid Masters, against Andy Murray (3-6 2-6). In general, 2015 was a tough year for Rafael Nadal as he suffered six defeats on clay (most since 2003).
The World #1’s previous 20 matches on clay have all finished in straight sets, with him winning 19 of them.
Kei Nishikori News
Kei Nishikori registered his fourth three-set win of the week to advance into his first final of the season (on tour) and also the first since ATP Buenos Aires 2017 (clay), where he lost to Aleksandr Dolgopolov in straight sets.
The Japanese #1 made three Masters 1000 finals in the past but ended up losing all three, against Novak Djokovic at Toronto 2016, Novak Djokovic at Miami 2016 and Rafael Nadal at Madrid 2014.
On the positive side, the recent three Masters 1000 events were all won by the first-timers, Jack Sock in Paris, Juan Marin Del Potro in Indian Wells and John Isner in Miami. In fact, John Isner finally managed to win a Masters 1000 final on his fourth attempt (this is Nishikori’s fourth attempt as well).
While Nishikori has spent around ten hours on court at Monte Carlo this week, Rafael Nadal needed just five hours (played one match less). Moreover, Nishikori has played 128 games this week compared to Nadal’s 64.
The last time Kei Nishikori won back-to-back matches against top 10 players was way back in 2014 when he defeated Milos Raonic (6) and Stan Wawrinka (4). He then followed up those performances by defeating the World #1 Novak Djokovic. This Monte Carlo final will be his third consecutive match against a top 10 player.
Tennis Prediction: Rafael Nadal Corect Score 2-0 SET
Odds: 1.30
